Small Planes More at Risk to Crash?
Conventional thinking that small RPT aircraft are more at risk from loading errors is challenged by private researcher and inventor, Captain Geoff Ogilvie. Not enough research or study has been done by government and I believe the risk to large aircraft from loading errors is greater than realized by many in the industry. There is a solution however within reach. It is a patent pending system called Avibridge.
(PRWEB) May 30, 2005 -- Conventional aviation thinking that small regular
public transport (RPT) aircraft are more at risk to loading errors than their
larger RPT cousins is challenged by independent researcher and Avibridge ™
inventor, Geoff Ogilvie.
Geoff is concerned that the sole evidence
available to investigators, in many large jet aircraft accidents, is the 85 year
old paper based weight & balance system, known as the load data sheet.
“This (Lack of alternative evidence) gives rise to what I call the Ice
Berg Effect.” Said the retired airline captain.
Smaller aircraft that
crash after take off can generally be easily reconstructed and their weight
& balance determined independently from the load sheet data.
This
was the case in small RPT aircraft Cessna Caravan 208B that killed ten people,
nine Canadians and one American, late Saturday, January 17, last year when the
small plane crashed into Lake Erie after having taken off from Pelee Island,
Ontario, Canada.
This crash that is still under investigation by TSB
Canada has caused the release of the following interim information:
The
maximum take-off weight in the Cessna aircraft manual is 8750 pounds (cargo pod
installed) or 8550 pounds if flying into known icing conditions. The
investigation determined that the actual weight of the occurrence aircraft on
departure from Pelee Island was approximately 9820 pounds, 1270 pounds over
gross weight.
However large aircraft due to;
- higher impact speed;
-
larger fuel load;
- more destructive post crash fire are;
-often lost over
deep water or,
- inaccessible mountainous terrain,
are more difficult
to reconstruct post crash. Often there is little or no aircraft structure,
baggage, cargo, fuel or human tissue left to be weighed and relocated on the
recovered aircraft.
His concern is shared by many in the accident
investigation business, including Acting Chairman Mark Rosenker US National
Transportation Safety Board (NTSB).
“The conventional industry logic
considers the simplistic ratio of loading error to aircraft weight rather than a
more in depth analysis of the many systemic and analytical risks to safety from
loading errors.” Stated Captain Ogilvie. I have developed a useful tool called
the WBS Threat & Error Model that can be used to determine true aircraft
risk of accident from loading error.
The simplistic ratio logic used by
many in the industry states that:
A comparison of various aircraft types
indicates that the ratio of passenger weight to overall aircraft weight is
inversely proportional to the size of the aircraft. For example, in a Boeing
747, the passenger weight represents approximately 9 per cent of the aircraft's
weight (450 passengers at 188 pounds, aircraft of 875 000 pounds) whereas the
passenger weight in a Caravan can represent approximately 22 per cent (10
passengers at 188 pounds, aircraft of 8550 pounds).
“Nobody knows for
sure the true weight or balance of commercial aircraft. They are never weighed
or balanced by external means except during a hangar check every few years, and
then the aircraft is weighed empty.” Continued Geoff.
The aviation
industry has relied on an 85 year old paper based system of computation to
determine aircraft weight & balance prior to take off. The system is
colloquially known as the load sheet.
A recent fatal accident involving
MK Airlines B747 Cargo aircraft that crashed after take off on Runway 34 at
Halifax International, Nova Scotia, Canada on October 14, 2004 is a case in
point. The accident, which is still under investigation by TSB Canada is being
closely followed by many in the industry to determine what part, loading error
played in causing this crash.
If, as is suspected by many, the load
sheet is the only evidence available to accident investigators then another case
can be filed under the surface of the Ice Berg Effect. A valuable chance to gain
more accurate weight & balance data on large RPT aircraft accidents will be
lost to researchers like Captain Ogilvie.
“If there had been an External
Weight & Balance System (EWBS) like Avibridge ™ in use at Halifax then the
true threat to aircraft safety due loading error could have been measured, said
Avibridge inventor Geoff Ogilvie.
“When are regulators going to face up
to their responsibilities and fund research and development to produce a system
that is independent, accurate, and verifiable and provides a final check and
warning to the pilot of overweight or out of balance condition prior to take
off.” Concluded Geoff Ogilvie.
Press Release authorised by Geoffrey K
Ogilvie, CEO Avibridge.com
PH: +662 261 7440
MOB. +6641353324
Email:
e-mail protected from spam bots
www.avibridge.com
Avibridge.com is an organisation
seeking development funding for an Avibridge ™ model and Avibridge ™
prototype.
© Copyright Geoffrey K Ogilvie 2005
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Source : http://www.prweb.com/releases/2005/5/prweb245768.htm